• Helping decision-makers to makes sense of, anticipate and influence the forces shaping our changing world.

    Addressing the big, controversial and critical questions that confront us.

  • As Niccolo Machiavelli pointed out six hundred years ago, change creates winners and losers; it is always controversial for someone.

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  • New ways are not always the best. Many problems have arisen before in different guises and concepts. Awareness of history is vital both for understanding the present and anticipating the future.

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  • "A man cannot stand in the same river twice, for it is no the same river and he is not the same man."

    Heraclitus of Ephesus (circa 500 BCE)

  • While it is tempting to think we understand the world and our place in it and take comfort in its current routines, change is inevitable. But conscious change must be founded on sound concepts and principles and allow for unanticipated outcomes.

    It all begins with an idea. Maybe you want to launch a business. Maybe you want to turn a hobby into something more. Or maybe you have a creative project to share with the world. Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference.

  • We must plan our own course and anticipate foul winds as well as fair. Understanding potential variance in conditions of action is an essential discipline as the future will not replicate the past.

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  • It is when things are going well that we must make the greatest investment in foresight. But, if we do not wish to lose our way, we must not let adversity shrink the horizon of our anticipation at any time.

    It all begins with an idea. Maybe you want to launch a business. Maybe you want to turn a hobby into something more. Or maybe you have a creative project to share with the world. Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference.

  • Usually, light is not only at the end of the tunnel. We must seek and interpret the light of clues to our progress along the journey. And we must keep an open mind, lest we interpret each clue as confirmatory. We must seek disconfirmation also.

    It all begins with an idea. Maybe you want to launch a business. Maybe you want to turn a hobby into something more. Or maybe you have a creative project to share with the world. Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference.

  • Security takes many forms. Preparedness for defence can be a powerful form of offence. Our options are determined by our intent, our capacities, our knowledge of the environment and our execution. And chance.

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  • All purposeful human action involves choice. How we choose and how we inform choice and subsequent action will often influence or even determine outcome.

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  • In life, so as in business and policy. People’s endless variety is the source of strength and the challenge to cohesion. We must seek out other, dissenting views and understand their reason and their passions.

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  • To anticipate change, we cannot view phenomena only at the aggregated, macro level. We must also understand the (meso-level) institutional constraints on actors as well as how they act individually to weigh alternatives and make decisions (micro-level).

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  • Every course of action involves a step in to the unknown. But little is achieved without that step. Courage has value, just as fortune favours the prepared mind.

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  • We must seek not only efficiency, but also balance and synthesis. Knowledge by itself offers a narrow form of progress. We must also value the ethical, the natural and the aesthetic, for they will outlast us.

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  • A good policy can only be a policy that works. That involves understanding the environment in which it will operate and how that environment may react and change. It involves clarity of intent and informed anticipation of consequences.

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  • Leadership is founded on respect and respect is earned. It must be earned through consistent, informed, morally-reasoned praxis. Leaders, especially decisive ones, reflect both in and on their practice. They help others to make sense of a confusing world. They serve as well as lead.

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Start (again) as you mean to carry on: confronting the big issues

The climate crisis

There is no doubt that the climate is changing. Nor is there any doubt that the significant preponderance of scientific opinion avers that the cause is the emission of ‘greenhouse’ gases — principally methane from animal cultivation and carbon dioxide from combustion of ‘fossil’ fuels. These result from human industrialisation and current patterns of human consumption.

What we need to understand is what is and what is not causing that change. The changes required to bring emissions to levels that will maintain global warming to within target limits set globally through scientific consensus will be enormously expensive. They will not be incurred equally. But, even in developed countries, the costs of shifting energy technologies to net-zero carbon emissions will be staggering.

We need to be sure we have understood the need for change, the science of climate and modelling that science, the validity of the data we are using, uncertainties in climate models and cost models, and that science, rather than ideology, is driving calls from change.

Claims that the science is ‘settled’ are both disputable and irrelevant. Science is never settled; it is and must always be, provisional, awaiting incommensurable evidence and refutation. In the debate on anthropogenic causes of climate change, false claims of scientific consensus have been both unproductive and irrelevant.

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